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BTCUSD looks like it's coming down to the yellow line -- $77K area. It's in free fall right now. Let's see if it'll bounce there.

BTCUSD : another AB = CD target is hit on the downside, $89.9K

COIN : the 61.8% retracement is $257 and AB = CD projects to $250. Whether this zone will serve as support will depend on BTC.

BTCUSD : I'm considering three scenarios from the least bearish to the most bearish 1). This correction is Wave 4 of a diagonal and places are channeling. We're very close to the lower channel line. I put a 4? to indicate this scenario. 2). BTC has completed a 5-wave leading diagonal. This is marked by the yellow 1-2-3-4-5. BTC is now retracing this 5-wave sequence that started in Sept 2024. Support Zone would then be in the $87K-$74K zone. 3). BTC has completed a 5-wave ending diagonal. BTC is retracing the 5-wave sequence that started from the bear market low. In this case, it can go to $70K-$50K.

SPX and QQQ charts concern me. They have completed 5 waves. The question is if the 5th is extending. If it is extending, then we've completed i of 5 and in ii of 5. ii of 5 right now is a flat. Wave 3 is just short of 2.681% of Wave 1 and Wave 5 (or i of 5) is just short of 0.618% of Wave 1, all acceptable ratios for those waves. If Wave 5 is not extending, then we're in the early stage of a correction to at least 38.2% (6123 or 200 DMA retracement), possibly 50% retracement (5877) . There is negative divergence on RSI -- lower highs while the index made higher highs. If the indices enter into a 10-20% correction, BTC is probably going to $75K or lower.

ETHUSD : After 2021 top, Ethereum went through a length multi-year complex correction that is W-X-Y. Since then, a new uptrend was born. We have completed Wave I of this new uptrend. The 5 subwaves of Wave I can be seen clearly. We're now in Wave II. Wave II usually retrace 50% or more. It can retrace very deep, even 90%. Let's hope ETH will found a bottom between 50% ($3169) and 61.8% ($2748) retracements.

BTCUSD : there is an AB = CD downside target at $93.6K. Today's low was around $94.5K with high volume. Looks like a selling climax to me. Market never points you to a clear path with 100% certainty. The $1000 short of the target can be due to front-running -- there were a lot of big money bids placed in the $94K range to catch this flush. Or, the market can still turn down to reach this target. Since it's quite likely that even if we have another flush down to $93.5K, BTC can still close above the confluence of three trendline supports, my plan is to hold my positions. I place a high probability on BTC closing above supports on the weekly chart.

BTCUSD : if prices drop below the confluence of support at 50 WMA, white-blue support lines, then the risk of this being an ABC expanded flat correction increases. In this case, BTC has completed 5 waves, I, II, III, IV, and V and we have entered a prolonged but sideways bear market since January 2025. In an Expanded Flat, the B wave exceeds the beginning of the A wave, making a new high. The C wave however, will exceed the end of the A wave, which is the April 2025 low. So if support breaks there, I expect BTC to go to $75K or lower. So I will exit most of my longs if support breaks on a weekly closing basis.

Orange resistance line: BTC attempted to break it three times. After the third rejection, it dropped to the blue support line, which served as resistance in March-April 2025. White and blue confluence of support lines-- until this breaks, the trend is still up and the cycle has not topped. April 2025 low retraced slightly more than 50% of the move from 9/24-1/2025 and reversed. Present low retraced slightly more than 50% of the move from 4/2025 to 7/2025. These are all typical retracements in an uptrend. I'm holding my long positions.

BTCUSD is coming down to the trendline. It's in the critical support area. This support line needs to hold on the closing basis if the bull market is to continue. If this support gives, more people will turn bearish and sell their longs, which would drive it down further to $93K area.