Technical analysis by John_Isige about Symbol BTC on 12/1/2025

Last week, BTC/USD attempted a corrective bounce within the broader medium-term downtrend. After reversing near 80,600, the price moved toward 91,000 as markets sharply increased expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Dovish comments from Fed officials, softer wholesale inflation (2.9% → 2.6%), and slowing retail sales (0.6% → 0.2%) pushed the FedWatch probability of a cut from 30% to 87%, boosting demand for non-dollar assets. However, the rebound was short-lived. BTC failed to hold above 91,000 and resumed its decline, now trading near 86,500, down more than 5% intraday. Analysts point to technical triggers behind the sell-off: the liquidation of several large long positions cascaded across the market, reaching a total of $646M, with ~90% longs washed out. Additional pressure came from: • Yearn Finance hack (~$9M stolen, incl. 1,000 ETH moved via Tornado Cash) • China reaffirming a full nationwide ban on crypto trading, stating digital assets have no legal-tender status and cannot be used in commerce These events fueled risk-off sentiment across the market. ⸻ Support and Resistance Levels BTC reversed from the middle Bollinger Band near 91,000 and is now attempting to consolidate below 87,500 (Murray [2/8]). A firm breakdown below 87,500 would target: • 81,250 (Murray [1/8]) • 75,000 (Murray [0/8]) A bullish reversal requires a breakout above 93,750 (Murray [3/8], 61.8% Fib), which would open the way toward: • 100,000 (Murray [4/8], 50% Fib) • 106,250 (Murray [5/8]) Indicators remain aligned with the downtrend: • Bollinger Bands slope downward • Stochastic points lower • MACD stays negative Resistance: 93,750 • 100,000 • 106,250 Support: 87,500 • 81,250 • 75,000 ⸻ BTC/USD Trading Scenarios 📉 Primary Scenario — SELL STOP • Entry: 85,800 • Take Profit: 81,250 • 75,000 • Stop Loss: 89,100 • Timeframe: Weekly • Bias: Bearish continuation below 87,500 📈 Alternative Scenario — BUY STOP • Entry: 93,800 • Take Profit: 100,000 • 106,250 • Stop Loss: 88,400 • Bias: Breakout above resistance