Technical analysis by John_Isige about Symbol TRX on 12/5/2025

TRX/USD has been under pressure since August, losing up to 26%, yet compared to other L1 assets the decline remains relatively mild. Over the past weeks, the pair stabilized around 0.27, forming a minor rebound structure. The key question now: can TRX reclaim its trend, or is this just a relief bounce? ⸻ Market Structure Price reacted to the 0.272 support zone again, while on-chain metrics show improving fundamentals: • Total Tron accounts exceed 350M • Perp DEX volume on Tron surged 271% in November • Stablecoin market cap on Tron reached $80B, near ATH TRX remains the dominant network for USDT flows — an upside catalyst if risk appetite returns. A confirmed trend reversal requires a breakout above the 20-day EMA, followed by a push toward 0.289 (Supertrend resistance). Failure to hold 0.277 risks another retest of 0.272. ⸻ Bullish Levels 0.289 • 0.293–0.298 • 0.305 • 0.319–0.326 • 0.334 • 0.354–0.362 • 0.369 A break of 0.293–0.298 is the key to unlocking bullish momentum — this zone clusters the 50 EMA, 38.2% Fib, and 200 EMA. Above it, the next pivot is 0.319–0.326, followed by 0.334, and the Golden Pocket at 0.354–0.362, which is the maximum realistic upside in the coming weeks unless macro conditions flip risk-on. ⸻ Bearish Levels 0.278–0.271 • 0.261–0.258 • 0.240 • 0.225–0.212 Below the 20 EMA, downside pressure persists. A break below 0.271 would reopen a slide toward 0.258 (23.6% Fib). Further bearish momentum targets 0.240, and then the macro support 0.225–0.212, which held from January–April 2025. Given Tron’s relative strength, a return to yearly lows remains unlikely unless Bitcoin makes fresh cycle lows. ⸻ Indicators • Daily RSI: bullish divergence — supporting recovery • Weekly RSI: recently flashed a sell signal, invalidated only above the 20-day EMA • Monthly RSI: cooling off but still holding above neutral — long-term structure remains intact ⸻ Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 0.293; Bearish below 0.277 Critical Reversal Zone: 0.293–0.298 Key Support: 0.272 Breakout Target: 0.319–0.326 and 0.354–0.362 Breakdown Target: 0.258 and 0.240